COMMENTARY | Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum swept Tuesday's GOP races, winning Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri and damaging the momentum of front-runner Mitt Romney, who had just won big in Florida and Nevada. Newt Gingrich, who won South Carolina, is betting big on upcoming victories in the South, including Texas. Despite Romney's hope to wrap up the GOP nomination early, it's still a three-man race.
With a double-dip recession yet to play out, incumbent President Barack Obama is looking increasingly stronger against his future Republican challenger in the general election. With the possibility of the eventual GOP nominee having only fractional support and being reluctantly chosen at the Republican National Convention in August, conservatives should write off 2012 as a slim chance and focus on 2016.
Basically, Romney, Santorum and Gingrich aren't getting it done. Romney, still the likeliest nominee, will probably lose 52 percent to 48 percent in the popular vote. Santorum, still a long shot for the nomination, will likely lose worse because of his more extreme conservative Catholic viewpoints. Gingrich, like Santorum, is a long shot potential nominee who wears controversy like a shroud but has a narrow shot at a victory over Obama due to his legendary political cunning and debating skills. Chances of victory for either man in November: 10 percent, 0 percent and 25 percent.
Since 2012 is a likely wash for the GOP, it should focus on public relations victories and building a groundwork for the 2016 election. At the convention, the powers that be ought to nominate Gingrich (and tell him to play it cool), pair him with a young power player for vice president like Marco Rubio and plan on nominating that vice presidential pick for president next time. Rubio is too inexperienced now to be a stand-alone candidate, but if the Republicans want a shot in four years, they can get him some experience this fall.
Give Romney a hearty handshake because he tried hard but couldn't unite the GOP base. Tell relative young'un Santorum that he can reapply next cycle and hope Gingrich can work some political magic before fading into the sunset as the oldest of the trio and a genuine relic of the 1990s. Groom Rubio as 2012 vice-presidential nominee and start working on slimming Chris Christie down and bulking up Bobby Jindal.
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